Monday, June 11, 2012

Odds of Advancing in Euro 2012

The graphs in this post show the proportion of squads that advanced to the knock-out stages in the Euro football championships 1996 to 2008, during the period of a 16 team competition. The graph above shows that 100% of teams with 6 or more points advanced to the knock-out stage, with 75% with 5 points advancing and 57% of those with 4 pointsNo squad advanced with 3 or fewer points. One win is not enough and two is a guarantee.

The graph below shows that there is only a 1 in 4 chance of winning a group with 5 points, and 1 in 3 with 6 points. Going undefeated in the group stage is not a guarantee of winning the group, however, as two teams could each collect 7 points, but only one would win the group.  This has not happened since 1996, but such an outcome is still in play this year in all four groups.
Data from UEFA.


Post a Comment