Odds of Advancing in Euro 2012

The graphs in this post show the proportion of squads that advanced to the knock-out stages in the Euro football championships 1996 to 2008, during the period of a 16 team competition. The graph above shows that 100% of teams with 6 or more points advanced to the knock-out stage, with 75% with 5 points advancing and 57% of those with 4 pointsNo squad advanced with 3 or fewer points. One win is not enough and two is a guarantee.

The graph below shows that there is only a 1 in 4 chance of winning a group with 5 points, and 1 in 3 with 6 points. Going undefeated in the group stage is not a guarantee of winning the group, however, as two teams could each collect 7 points, but only one would win the group.  This has not happened since 1996, but such an outcome is still in play this year in all four groups.

Data from UEFA.