Critiques of Bermon and Garnier 2017 (related to Chand vs IAAF)

A new paper was published today with a strong critique of the IAAF study on testosterone and female elite athletes. 

Franklin S, Ospina Betancurt J, Camporesi S What statistical data of observational performance can tell us and what they cannot: the case of Dutee Chand v. AFI & IAAF Br J Sports Med Published Online First: 23 February 2018. doi: 10.1136/bjsports-2017-098513

That paper concludes:

we believe that it is scientifically incorrect to draw the conclusions in the Bermon and Garnier paper from the statistical results presented. Their paper claims that certain athletes have an advantage in precisely the five events where a significant effect was found: we calculate that a high share of those five significant effects are likely to be false positives.

An earlier critique was provided by statistician Andrew Gelman:

the statistical analysis data processing in this paper is such a mess that I can’t really figure out what data they are working with, what exactly they are doing, or the connection between some of their analyses and their scientific goals. 

Gelman was motivated by Simon Franklin, a post-doc at LSE, who emailed him that:

There are more than a few problems with the paper, not least the fact that it makes causal claims from correlations in a highly selective sample, and the bizarre choice of comparing averages within the highest and lowest tertiles of fT levels using a student t-test (without any other statistical tests presented).

But most problematic is the multiple hypothesis testing. The authors test for a correlation between T-levels and performance across a total of over 40 events (men and women) and find a significant correlation in 5 events, at the 5% level. They then conclude:

Female athletes with high fT levels have a significant competitive advantage over those with low fT in 400 m, 400 m hurdles, 800 m, hammer throw, and pole vault.

These are 5 events for which they found significant correlations! And we are lead to believe that there is no such advantage for any of the other events.

I also have written two critiques. First, a post-publication peer review:

My bottom line: The paper has some significant methodological issues, most notably the inclusion of female athletes who doped with those with naturally high levels of T. There is some double counting of athletes in 2011 and 2013. There is also speculation that the male findings are contaminated by doping. Methodological issues notwithstanding, the paper nonetheless strongly reinforces the 2015 CAS Chand decision. 

 And second, a short data analysis of their reported findings.

The Bermon and Garnier paper clearly has some methodological issues. However, even taken at face value it does not support the IAAF case against Dutee Chand. CAS continues to dither over the arbitration nonetheless. It is time to send it back to IAAF and ask them to start again.

ISG 2018: Bonus Class Materials #2

This week -- meetings 9 & 10 -- we continue a short unit on sport and social movements. Here is some material from the syllabus plus bonus material for the week ahead.

Our class is a part of the Inclusive Sport Summit taking place on campus this week (props to Medford Moorer for making it happen with CU Athletics and Recreation Services). Here is the schedule for the ISS on Wednesday and Thursday. Note that it is open to the general public.

The Thursday closing session will feature Solomon Wilcots (CU Buff, NFL, CBS and now Sky Sports) and Jim Trotter (ESPN, Sports Illustrated), along with Professor Nancy Lough (UNLV). NOTE that it will be in the Touchdown Club in Dal Ward.

On Tuesday, in addition to a scheduled quiz, we will have a final look at the Russian doping saga with a discussion of tonite's 60 Minutes episode featuring Grigory Rodchenkov.

We will also start a discussion of Colin Kaepernick, Donald Trump and the NFL. I'll give a mini-lecture on propaganda.

Here are this week's readings:

• Gibbs, L, 2017. A high school football team took a knee and then all hell broke loose, Think Progress
• Seth Wickersham and Don Van Natta Jr., 2017. Gaffes, TV ratings concerns dominated as NFL, players forged anthem peace, ESPN
• G. E. Gilmore, 2017. Colin Kaepernick and the myth of the “good” protest, The New York Times
• Sherman, R. 2016. Common Sense, The Players Tribune, Oct 27.
• Lauricella, A. & D. Werly, 2016 The NFL and Domestic Violence: All Talk, No Walk, Feb 16.
• Tech Times, 2015, Interview: 'League Of Denial' Authors Mark Fainaru-Wada And Steve Fainaru Talk Concussion Crisis In NFL, 5 Oct.

Bonus material will be suggested in class.

ISG 2018: Bonus Class Materials #1

I have promised my students in Introduction to Sports Governance some bonus materials related to class discussions that we won't be able to get into in any depth. There is a lot going on in sports governance right now (safe understatement). Here are some bonus items:

• On the Jamaican sprinters clenbuterol positives, buried by WADA, mentioned in class, here is the original ARD report and a discussion by Ross Tucker;
• The Pyoengchang Winter Games start later this week, and in advance the IOC, WADA and CAS are on the brink of all out war with one another. Very good analyses can be found at Inside the Games, Sport Integrity Initiative, and 3 Wire Sports.
• CU Athletics and Recreation Services are holding the first Inclusive Sports Summit next week. This class is participating in the event. I'll discuss further in class. Details here and schedule here.

We have three Olympians visiting class tomorrow, here are some highlights of their careers in and out of sport:

Casey Malone on discus:

Mara Abbott on her broken heart following Rio:

Kara Goucher as an anti-doping whistleblower: