Over the next week or so I'll be reposting some of my discussions on skill in prediction from
my other blog as a lead in to the
2011-2012 Least Thing Prediction Contests. This year I will run competitions for the regular seasons of the English Premier League and the Bundesliga. I will propose several baselines for evaluation of forecast skill (suggestions welcomed).
Here is a link to the outcome of last year's EPL context.
The winners of the contests will each receive a paperback copy of
The Climate Fix, which is due to be released by the end of this year. Bundesliga fixtures kick off on August 5th and the Premier League on August 13th. Contest entries will be due the day before the start of each season. So please sharpen your pencils and gaze into your crystal balls, the seasons start soon!
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