tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2807806767960745481.post7777293524780657656..comments2024-03-21T22:51:15.684-07:00Comments on The Least Thing: Does Nate Silver Have Predictive Skill in the NCAA Tourney?Roger Pielke, Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/04711007512915460627noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2807806767960745481.post-44895671060533988992013-03-20T19:28:06.688-07:002013-03-20T19:28:06.688-07:00In an environment where the higher seed almost alw...In an environment where the higher seed almost always wins... it must be next to impossible to have a "skillful forecast".<br /><br />As a side note- I think you would have to define "skill" more thoroughly. Couldn't there be a scenario under which Silver's model correctly predicts one of the cinderella teams? There are certain circumstances under which this would be exceedingly skillful. Jacob Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05308133088453666659noreply@blogger.com