tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2807806767960745481.post6408756394178837222..comments2024-03-21T22:51:15.684-07:00Comments on The Least Thing: World Cup Prediction Evaluation CompetitionRoger Pielke, Jr.http://www.blogger.com/profile/04711007512915460627noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2807806767960745481.post-76643315838118978392014-06-14T03:05:59.126-07:002014-06-14T03:05:59.126-07:00If anyone wants the Betfair market odds as at a fe...If anyone wants the Betfair market odds as at a few hours before the first game kick-off, I'm happy to supply. I saved the odds on the eventual winner, also the odds on qualifying from each group.<br /><br />This is, in my capitalist opinion, the least naive forecast since it results solely from money flow! :) <br /><br />email me at my name at gmail dot com if you want them.<br /><br />Roddy Campbell<br /><br />Update following the Spain Holland game:<br /><br />At the start there was a 70% chance the winner would come from one of four teams, in order Brazil, Argentina, Spain and Germany.<br /><br />The impact of last night is that Spain have widened out a lot, nearly halving from 13.7% to 7.3%, Holland have joined them at 4th equal (rocketing in from a lowly 2% chance of winning the tournament before the game), and Argentina have tightened in.<br /><br />The Spanish betting move is unsurprising - a) they were rubbish, b) perhaps more importantly, their chance of qualifying has changed from 85% to 47%<br /><br />Holland are 96% to qualify, Chile 56%, ahead of Spain.<br /><br />(For those not familiar with Betfair, its huge advantage is that you can trade. eg someone who 'backed' Holland to win the tournament before the Spain game can now 'lay' Holland, and either take a cash win or continue to run some of the bet with the other guy's money. A perceived mispricing can be extracted - if I felt 50:1 on Holland was just wrong, too low, so I bought some of that, I can now trade out at 13:1. All numbers are round ones.)<br />Roddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14104358721079710535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2807806767960745481.post-44141250719496938782014-06-12T02:50:11.552-07:002014-06-12T02:50:11.552-07:00Roger, I would love a breakdown copy of the player...Roger, I would love a breakdown copy of the player by player & Team Transfer data you mentioned you have.<br />Awesome post. Will be following intently<br />krozza49@gmail.com<br />Craig<br />AUSTRALIA<br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05022328644033109281noreply@blogger.com